Gwynne Dyer: Adult supervision

Trump misunderstands, and thinks Pyongyang is going to launch a missile at the United States. After all, there was a graphic with the report that shows the trajectory of the North Korean missile reaching the U.S., and Trump trusts Fox much more than his own intelligence services. So he orders all U.S. strategic forces to go to DEFCON 1: Defence Readiness Condition One — nuclear war is imminent.

The North Koreans spot all the unusual activity in the American forces — leave cancelled in Strategic Air Command, U.S. nuclear subs in port sailing with zero warning leaving part of their crews behind, etc. — and conclude that an American preemptive attack is imminent.

The North Koreans go to their own equivalent of DEFCON 1: mobilizing and dispersing their armed forces, evacuating their leadership from the capital to some bunker in the countryside, and so on. American intelligence reports all this activity, and this time Trump actually listens to them. So he orders a disarming strike on all North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities. With U.S. nuclear weapons, of course. Nothing else would do the job.

That’s how the Second Korean War starts. Not many Americans would be killed, and probably no civilians, because in fact North Korea doesn’t yet have any long-range missiles that can accurately deliver nuclear weapons on the United States, but millions would die in both parts of Korea. With luck, the Chinese would stay out even as their North Korean ally is reduced to rubble, but who knows?

Gwynne Dyer: Adult supervision

Aggregated from: The Telegram

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